Indian markets logged their third consecutive winning week — the longest streak in seven months — in a holiday-shortened four-day session (Friday June 26 was a market holiday for Muharram). The Nifty closed at 24,056.00 (+0.80% weekly) and the Sensex at 77,100.47 (+0.46%), but the real story was beneath the surface: India VIX collapsed from 27.32 on Monday to 13.05 on Thursday — a near-halving in four sessions — as US–Iran talks in Switzerland progressed positively through the week. Tuesday’s expiry-day selloff (Nifty -1.16% to a low of 23,789) gave way to a sharp Wednesday recovery (+0.83%) on dovish RBI commentary and a fresh leg down in Brent crude, which fell to $72–76/bbl — pre-war levels — as tanker traffic through Hormuz resumed. Auto, pharma, and private banks led sector gains; IT and metals were the laggards. DIIs bought on all four trading days (+₹11,101 crore); FIIs were net sellers overall but turned buyers on Thursday. Full detail in Sections 3 and 4; this week’s Learning Corner (Section 5) explains the Gold/Nifty ratio and how to use it for asset allocation.

Auto crossed its 200-day moving average on Thursday as falling crude lifted margin outlooks; M&M and Maruti both rose 3.8–4.2%. NBFCs and microfinance names led an even sharper rally on Wednesday — CreditAccess Grameen, Mahindra Finance, and Cholamandalam Investment surged 5–8% on falling bond yields. Pharma gained through the week on reports the US FDA approached Indian drugmakers for a critical cancer drug. Private banks rose on the RBI’s new rule allowing loans against foreign-currency deposits — ICICI Bank hit ₹1,374 (+3%) on Wednesday. Metals were the worst performer (-4.4%) on falling commodity prices; IT fell over 3% for the week (more in Section 4) and Power Grid (-2.4%) and Bharti Airtel (-1.5%) were the biggest single-stock drags on Thursday.

Source: NSE/Business Standard/Trading Economics intraday and closing reports, 22–25 June 2026.

• Switzerland Talks (Days 1–4): Iran–US negotiations resumed in Switzerland on Monday — the rescheduled session after last week’s postponed signing. Talks progressed steadily through the week, with no fresh escalation reported. This is the primary reason for VIX’s sharp compression (27.32 → 13.05) and Brent’s slide toward pre-war levels as tanker traffic through Hormuz resumed at the highest pace since the war began.
• Tuesday’s Expiry Selloff, Wednesday’s V-Shaped Recovery: Nifty fell 1.16% to a weekly low of 23,789 on Tuesday’s weekly expiry, then rebounded 0.83% on Wednesday as RBI Governor Malhotra ruled out near-term rate hikes and Brent fell to multi-month lows near $76.50. Bank Nifty surged 1.68% the same day.
• RBI Eases Foreign-Currency Deposit Rules: The RBI notified new FEMA (Non-Debt Instruments) rules allowing loans against foreign-currency deposits — a Budget 2026-27 measure aimed at attracting foreign capital and deepening domestic markets. Private banks (ICICI, HDFC, Kotak) were the immediate beneficiaries.
• Brent Falls to Pre-War Levels: Crude fell as low as $72.40/bbl on Thursday — effectively erasing the entire war-risk premium — as more tankers resumed Hormuz passage and government data showed non-domestic LPG supply restored to pre-crisis levels.
• Gold & Silver’s Fourth Straight Weekly Decline: Gold ($4,008.76, -0.46%) and silver ($56.95/oz, -1.96%) extended their losing streak as a stronger dollar and expectations of prolonged higher US rates weighed on precious metals — even as equities rallied. See Section 6 for what this divergence means for your portfolio.
• Friday’s Global Tech Rout (India Closed): While Indian markets were shut for Muharram, Apple suffered its steepest single-day fall since April 2025 after raising prices on Mac, iPad, and other devices amid memory-chip cost pressures — dragging Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon down 1.5–3.5% and Nikkei down 3.34%. This sets a cautious tone for Monday’s Indian open.

Global markets had their wildest AI/semiconductor week of the year. Tuesday: a broad chip selloff ahead of earnings — Micron -13%, SanDisk -13%, Intel -6%, AMD -6%, the SMH semiconductor ETF -7%; Korea’s Kospi fell over 4% on SK Hynix weakness. Wednesday after the close: Micron’s blowout results (below) reversed the mood instantly. Thursday: Asia exploded higher on the Micron read-through — Nikkei +4.61%, Kospi +5.42%, SK Hynix +13% — even as Apple’s 6% US slide (it raised Mac/iPad prices to cover rising memory costs) capped Nasdaq gains. Friday: a New York Times report that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 — citing SpaceX’s weak post-listing performance and broader AI-stock volatility — reversed the entire move, sending Asian tech sharply lower again. The lesson: AI-linked markets are now trading on sentiment swings of 5%+ within 48 hours, in either direction.

The AI memory story, in one sentence: Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix have redirected most of their advanced capacity to High-Bandwidth Memory for AI chips — which consumes roughly 3x the wafer capacity of ordinary consumer DRAM — leaving too little supply for laptops and phones. DRAM prices are up 200%+ since early 2025; the average smartphone price hit a record $523 in 2026; and this is exactly why Apple raised Mac and iPad prices this same week. Management at Micron and Intel both say the shortage will not meaningfully ease before late 2027 at the earliest (Intel’s CEO says 2028). Outlook: the AI capex cycle remains structurally strong, but expect continued sharp swings on any news (like Friday’s OpenAI report) about whether AI infrastructure spending itself is sustainable.

Here is the divergence to understand: AI hardware (memory, chips) is booming — AI services (IT consulting/outsourcing) is struggling. Accenture — the global bellwether for IT services — cut its FY26 revenue growth guidance from 3–5% to 3–4% on June 19, citing $90 million in missed consensus revenue, a $100 million West Asia-conflict hit, and a 14.7% YoY decline in its order book. The read-through hit Indian IT immediately: Nifty IT crashed 6.4% intraday that Friday (Infosys -7.5%, TCS/Tech Mahindra/Persistent -7%, HCL Tech/Coforge/LTIMindtree -6%) to a three-year low. The weakness continued into this week — Tuesday saw a further 2.2% intraday fall (TCS, Infosys, Wipro -3% each) — taking the index down 13% over three weeks and 31% over six months, against an 8.4% Nifty 50 decline over the same six months. Citi flagged Nifty IT trading at 16x forward earnings versus Accenture’s 10x, calling Indian IT names “expensive, not cheap” given the demand environment. The core issue, per multiple analysts (Nomura, HSBC, William O’Neil): AI-led demand and large deals are real, but not yet enough to offset slowing discretionary client spending — the same hyperscalers buying Micron’s memory chips are increasingly building AI capability in-house rather than outsourcing it to firms like Infosys and TCS. This is the structural risk to watch: India’s $3.4 trillion-plus listed market (the combined value of its 500 largest non-state companies, now bigger than Canada’s GDP) is being pulled in two directions by the same AI wave — pharma and AI-hardware-adjacent plays benefiting, IT services bearing the brunt.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, rose to 3.4% YoY (highest since October 2023); headline PCE hit 4.1% YoY (highest since April 2023) — both in line with expectations but confirming the war’s energy-driven inflation has spread into the broader economy. The Fed’s own June projections already see PCE ending 2026 at 3.6% (up from 2.7% previously), with 9 of 18 officials now pencilling in at least one rate hike by year-end. New Fed Chair Warsh argues AI should prove disinflationary longer-term, but near-term data leaves no realistic path to a 2026 US rate cut — a global headwind that keeps the dollar firm and is the backdrop against which India’s own falling-crude, falling-VIX story stands out as a relative bright spot.

This week is a textbook moment to introduce a tool used by long-term asset allocators: the Gold/Nifty Ratio — here calculated as Gold (in USD, converted to INR, ×1.1 adjustment) divided by Nifty, on a monthly chart going back to 1991. It tells you, at a glance, whether gold or equities is the stronger asset right now, and history shows two clear extremes that have marked every major turning point for 35 years.

Gold(USD’INR×1.1) ÷ Nifty — Current: 0.567, down 12.44% from this cycle’s peak of 0.652

How to read it — the two lines are the whole signal:

• Upper red line (≈0.648–0.65): When the ratio touches this level, gold has historically reached a cyclical peak relative to equities. Action: book gold profits and rotate into equities. This level was touched in the early 1990s, again around 2012–13, and most recently this cycle — the chart’s high of 0.652 was hit just weeks ago.
• Lower red line (≈0.257): When the ratio falls to this level, equities have historically become cheap relative to gold. Action: buy/add gold and reduce equity exposure. This level was touched at the 2007–08 low and again around 2018–19, both periods that preceded major gold rallies.
• Where we are right now: The ratio peaked at 0.652 (high) this cycle and has already pulled back to 0.567, a 12.44% retracement from the high. Per the rule above, this is consistent with gold having recently reached peak territory — and the correct response was to have already been booking gold gains and adding equities, which is exactly what this week’s data shows happening (VIX collapsing, Nifty rallying three straight weeks, gold falling for a 4th consecutive week).

Applying it today: The ratio hit a cycle high of 0.652 a few weeks ago — touching the upper red line — and has since retraced 12.44% to 0.567. That high was the signal: gold had become expensive relative to the Nifty, and the correct response was to book gold gains and rotate into equities. This week’s market action is the real-world confirmation of that signal already playing out: India VIX collapsed from 27.32 to 13.05, the Nifty logged a third straight winning week, and gold fell for a fourth consecutive week. The ratio is still well above the lower red line (0.257), so there is no signal yet to buy gold or reduce equities — that signal only fires if the ratio falls all the way back toward 0.26, which has historically taken several years after a peak like this one.

• Tuesday 30 June is a triple-expiry day — Nifty weekly, Nifty monthly, and Bank Nifty monthly settle simultaneously, the most important single session of the coming week. Expect elevated volatility into the close.
• Watch the weekend Switzerland outcome. A confirmed deal extends this week’s rally toward 24,300+; a breakdown reverses it below 23,900. Friday’s global tech rout (Apple-led) is an added headwind for Monday’s open regardless of the Iran outcome.
• Auto, pharma, and private banks remain the sectors with genuine fundamental tailwinds (falling crude, RBI’s dovish tone, new FX-deposit rules) — add on dips.
• Metals and IT are this week’s clearest underperformers; avoid fresh entries until commodity prices and the global tech selloff stabilise.
• Per Section 5: the Gold/Nifty ratio peaked at 0.652 and is retracing — the “book gold, buy equities” signal has already fired. Continue deploying into equities; maintain (don’t add to) your strategic gold allocation unless the ratio falls back toward 0.26.
• Technical: Nifty support 23,800; resistance 24,200–24,250.