Sixteen weeks after it began on February 28, 2026, the US–Iran war reached its effective conclusion this week. On Sunday, June 14, President Trump declared on Truth Social: “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Indian markets responded with a five-session winning streak, the Nifty 50 gaining 1.7% for the week to close at 24,013.10 — its first close above the psychologically critical 24,000 mark in over two months — and the Sensex advancing 1.7% to 76,802.90.

The deal’s terms are comprehensive: cessation of hostilities in Lebanon, an end to Iran’s restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, a reduction of US military assets from the region, relief of sanctions on Iran, and an economic commitment to a reconstruction and development plan for the country. The naval blockade is to lift and the strait fully reopen within 30 days. Notably, the final agreement left out discussion of Iran’s missile programme and its support for regional “resistance groups” — issues reserved for future negotiation. A formal signing ceremony was scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland. Markets surged through Thursday in anticipation — five consecutive winning sessions from last Friday’s close through Thursday’s 24,168 — before Friday’s unexpected postponement of the Switzerland signing talks introduced fresh uncertainty.

Compounding Friday’s reversal, US technology bellwether Accenture slashed its annual revenue growth forecast overnight, triggering a brutal selloff across global IT services stocks. Infosys and TCS ADRs were hammered in US trading, and the contagion hit Indian IT stocks hard on Friday morning. The Nifty fell 155 points (−0.64%) to 24,013.10 and the Sensex dropped 608 points (−0.78%) to 76,802.90, snapping the five-day winning streak — though the index still closed the week comfortably in positive territory. The most striking detail: even as the market fell on Friday, FIIs turned aggressive net buyers (+₹4,859 crore) — the single largest FII buying day since the war began — while DIIs, after five days of relentless buying, finally took some profit. For the week as a whole, FIIs were net BUYERS of Indian equities (+₹3,386 crore) — the first weekly net FII inflow since the war’s early weeks.

The week’s chart shows the most decisive directional move of the entire conflict period: five consecutive up-days carrying the Nifty from 23,623 to 24,168 — a 2.3% advance — entirely on the strength of the peace deal announcement. Thursday’s close above 24,000 was the first sustained break of that level since before the war intensified in April. Friday’s 155-point pullback, while disappointing, did not erase the week’s gains; the Nifty closed at 24,013.10, still firmly above the 24,000 mark and 390 points higher than the prior Friday. The technical structure remains constructive: the index has broken above the falling channel that had contained price action for the previous two months, forming a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

This week’s sectoral performance is a textbook “war-ending rotation.” Nifty India Defence (+6.6%) — the week’s biggest gainer — was driven by reports that India is close to finalising a BrahMos supersonic cruise missile sale to Vietnam, alongside Rajnath Singh’s announcement of record domestic defence production. Consumer Durables (+6.4%) and Realty (+5.5%) are the classic peace-dividend trades — lower energy costs, a stronger rupee, and improving consumer sentiment directly benefit both sectors. PSU Bank (+2.2%) continued its multi-week recovery. Nifty IT was the lone sector in the red (-1.3%) — Accenture’s guidance cut is a stark reminder that IT’s troubles are now structural (AI disruption fears, US client budget caution) rather than purely war-related, even as every other sector celebrates the conflict’s resolution.

• The US–Iran War: How It Ended (A 16-Week Timeline Recap):
  • Feb 28, 2026: US and Israel launch joint military operations against Iran, beginning “major combat operations”
  • Apr 8, 2026: First two-week ceasefire announced; Brent crashed from $111+ toward $92
  • May 27–28, 2026: 60-day MOU tentatively agreed; collapsed within days on fresh Qeshm Island strikes
  • Jun 11, 2026: Trump’s extreme “smithereens” ultimatum to Iran; followed within 48 hours by rapid diplomatic breakthrough
  • Jun 14, 2026 (Sunday): Trump declares the deal “complete”; authorises Hormuz reopening and naval blockade removal
  • Jun 19, 2026 (Friday): Formal signing ceremony in Switzerland unexpectedly postponed — the final procedural step remains outstanding as this newsletter goes to print
• What the Deal Actually Contains:
  • Cessation of hostilities in Lebanon (Israel–Hezbollah front)
  • End to Iranian restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz; mines to be cleared within 30 days
  • Reduction of US military assets from the Middle East region
  • Relief of sanctions on Iran
  • Economic commitment to an Iran reconstruction and development plan
  • Explicitly excluded for now: Iran’s missile programme and its support for regional “resistance groups” — reserved for future negotiations
  • US Defense Secretary Hegseth characterised the approach as fundamentally different from the 2015 JCPOA: “Obama, they begged Iran for a deal…we bombed Iran, and then put in a blockade…to ensure that they come to the table for a great deal.”
• The Human and Economic Cost: The conflict cost the United States 13 lives and billions of dollars over nearly four months. Iran effectively controlled the Strait of Hormuz — the passage for roughly 20% of the world’s oil — for the entire period, virtually shutting down the route. Hundreds of commercial vessels and their crews were stranded in limbo. The International Maritime Organisation paid tribute to “innocent seafarers affected and their families” for their resilience through the crisis.
• Friday’s Accenture Shock — A Reminder IT’s Problems Are Structural:
  • Accenture, the global IT services bellwether, slashed its FY27 revenue growth forecast overnight Thursday into Friday
  • Infosys and TCS American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) crashed in US trading on the news; the selloff transmitted directly into Indian markets at Friday’s open
  • Nifty IT was the only sector to close the week in the red (-1.3%) — even as every other major sector rallied on the peace deal
  • This is the second major IT-specific shock in five weeks (after the OpenAI Deployment Company news in May) — confirming that Indian IT’s structural challenges (AI disruption, cautious US client budgets) are independent of the geopolitical conflict and will persist even as the war ends
• Oil Markets Brace for 85+ Million Barrels of Stranded Crude: Analysts estimate the Hormuz reopening could release more than 85 million barrels of crude that has been stranded in the Middle East throughout the conflict. This represents a significant near-term supply overhang that could keep Brent depressed well below $80 for an extended period — an unambiguous positive for India’s import bill, inflation outlook, and currency.
• Defence Sector & BrahMos–Vietnam Deal: Reports during the week suggested India is close to finalising a sale of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to Vietnam. Separately, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh announced that India’s domestic defence production rose to ₹1.78 lakh crore in FY26, up from ₹1.54 lakh crore in FY25 — a reminder that India’s defence manufacturing build-out is a structural, multi-year story independent of any single conflict’s resolution.

• Global Markets “Soared” on the Sunday Deal Announcement: Markets worldwide rallied sharply on news of the agreement, with oil prices falling more than $4 a barrel immediately. The signing ceremony being scheduled for Switzerland (a neutral, symbolic venue) added further credibility to the deal’s durability
• Accenture-Led Global IT Selloff (Friday): Accenture’s guidance cut triggered a cascading decline across global IT services names — not just an India story. US technology spending slowdown concerns, uncertainty over US interest rate expectations, and dollar strength all compounded the selloff
• Brent Crude at $78.31 — Lowest Since Early March: Down 0.68% on Friday alone; WTI at $76.14 (-0.60%). The cumulative decline since the war’s peak (Brent above $120 in April) now exceeds 35%. Analysts see 85+ million barrels of stranded crude entering the market over coming weeks
• US Federal Reserve Decision Loomed Over the Week: Markets were cautious ahead of the Fed’s policy decision, contributing to Wednesday’s modest pullback even amid the broader peace rally. A hawkish Fed stance partially offset the geopolitical good news through midweek
• Gold & Silver Crash Globally on Peace + Dollar Strength: The reduction in safe-haven demand (war ending) combined with a stronger dollar (following the IT-led equity selloff) to hit precious metals hard. This is the clearest evidence yet that markets are pricing the conflict as genuinely over, not just paused

• Deploy Remaining War-Era Cash Now — Not on Confirmation. This week’s FII data delivers the clearest signal yet: smart institutional money bought aggressively (+₹4,859 Cr) on Friday’s dip, not after the formal signing. Waiting for 100% certainty means buying after the rally has already happened. If you have been holding 40–50% cash through the war (as we have advised since March), this week is the moment to begin deploying the bulk of it.
• Realty and Consumer Durables — The Peace Dividend Trade. +5.5% and +6.4% respectively this week confirm these are the immediate beneficiaries of de-escalation: lower rates, stronger rupee, improving sentiment. DLF, Godrej Properties, and quality consumer durables names remain attractive on any post-rally consolidation.
• Defence: A Structural Story Independent of the War’s End. Do not assume defence stocks fall now that the conflict is resolving — this week’s +6.6% gain on the BrahMos-Vietnam deal news proves the opposite. India’s defence manufacturing build-out (₹1.78 lakh crore production, up from ₹1.54 lakh crore) is a multi-year domestic and export story, not a war trade.
• IT: Treat the Accenture Shock as a Separate Risk From the War. Do not conflate Friday’s IT weakness with the peace deal — they are unrelated. IT’s problems (AI disruption, cautious US budgets) will persist even as the broader market re-rates on peace. Continue holding quality IT names for the long term, but do not expect IT to participate fully in the immediate post-war rally.
• Gold/Silver: Trim, Don’t Eliminate. This week’s 6%+ correction in precious metals confirms the war-premium is unwinding fast. Reduce any tactical overweight built up during the conflict, but retain a 5–8% strategic allocation as portfolio insurance — geopolitical calm is never guaranteed to be permanent.
• SIPs: The 16-Week Compounding Story Is Now Visible. Every SIP instalment from February 28 through this week has been buying through a war. The Nifty at 24,013 today, against a war-era low of 22,182, means SIP units bought at the bottom in early April are already sitting on 8–9% gains. This is the validation of staying disciplined through the entire conflict.